Sunday, November 26, 2006

Finals Predictions:

South Jersey Group 1:

Paulsboro over Glassboro by 20: I am thinking a final score of 34 (4 TDs and 2 FGs) to 14. Paulsboro won by 20!

Central Jersey Group 1:

Florence over South River by 35: 42 -7 Florence won by 11

South Jersey Group 2:

Manasquan over West Deptford by 21: 35-14 Manasquan won by 28

South Jersey Group 3:

Lacey over Seneca by 4: 21-17 - if it was at Seneca, I would reverse this. Lacey won by 12

Central Jersey Group 3:

Moorestown over Middletown South in the upset special by 7: 28-21

South Jersey Group 4:

Absegami over Cherokee by 7: 21-14 Absegami won by 1

I predict that I will be wrong on 2 of these (in terms of picking the winner). Which 2? Please give an opinion only if you have no involvement with the schools you talk about. For example, I want to be wrong about South Jersey Group 1, so I would not pick that game for me to be wrong. Please give your forum name if you have one, otherwise give yourself a nickname. Remember, only pick 2, so just give your nickname and name 2 for which I will be wrong - no essay answers please.

Rankings Criteria: 11/26/06

Criteria for Teams to move up (or down) in my rankings:

Small Schools rankings:

St. Joe's: They seem to be the best of the 48 teams that I rank. If West Deptford beats Manasquan, I will have to re-evaluate.

West Deptford: They are #2 and will stay there unless they beat Manasquan and then it will be a tough call between them and St. Joe's for #1. What would you do in this scenario?

Group 1 rankings:

Florence: Now ranked #1 in Group 1. The only way I justify putting Paulsboro ahead ot them is if they look unimpressive in their final and Paulsboro looks very inpressive in theirs. I may set some exact criteria for this, but I will go to both games and draw my own conclusions as to how they would have matched up. It will be hard to place a 2 loss team above a one loss team, so Paulsboro would have to look much better. One argument: Florence would only have one loss to a team that lost to a non-playoff team and then lost in the playoffs and to a team that is a playoff finalist. Paulsboro lost to 2 playoff teams, one of which is a finalist and undefeated going into the finals. Paulsboro's final opponent is superior to Florence's final opponent (the weakest of all finalists).

Paulsboro: They lost to West Deptford in a great game! They will be heavily favored to win the final.

Schalick: They stay #3 in Group 1 with the Paulsboro/Glassboro winner ahead of them and the loser behind them. Yes, you could argue that if Glassboro upsets Paulsboro then they deserve to be ranked ahead of Glassboro based on the regular season game, but that was then and this is now and they are not finishing as the Group Champion. Yes, they only have one loss and it was a playoff loss in 2OT, but the Paulsboro/Glassboro winner will have more wins.

Glassboro: They are #4 unless they upset Paulsboro.

All other teams in Group 1 should maintain their rankings (once I finalize them for this week).

There is a possibility that in the Small School rankings that I could move Bishop Eustace and possibly Haddonfield ahead of Glassboro. The justification for Haddonfield would be that despite more losses, they would have beat 2 of the 3 teams that Glassboro lost to. Bishop Eustace's losses were all to quality programs and playoff teams as would Glassboro's, whereas Haddonfield lost to 2 lower ranked teams and one with a losing record.

In the Tri-County rankings, one could argue that with a Glassboro loss that Williamstown moves up, but in my observation of Williamstown, I saw too many vulnerabilities that were perfect for Glassboro to exploit.

In the Gloucester Couty rankings, Township would move above Glassboro based on superior strength of schedule.

Tuesday, November 21, 2006

Rankings Criteria: 11/21/06

Criteria for Teams to move up (or down) in my rankings

Small Schools rankings:

St. Joe's: They seem to be the best of the 48 teams that I rank. However, if they should lose to Hammonton, I will have to re-evaluate. If West Deptford beats Manasquan, I will also have to re-evaluate.

West Deptford: They are #2 and will stay there unless they lose to Paulsboro and/or lose by more than 21 to Manasquan as Manasquan's closest margin of victory is 28 (over Delran). If they beat Manasquan then it will be a tough call between them and St. Joe's for #1. What would you do in this scenario?

Group 1 rankings

Schalick: Currently ranked #1 in Group 1, but they will not maintain that ranking unless Paulsboro, Florence and Glassboro all end up with 2 or more losses and, of course, Schalick wins convincingly over Cumberland (They did not!). If that occurs, it will depend on whether Paulsboro beats Glassboro by more than Schalick did. Schalick's only loss was by 1 point in double OT in the playoffs Since they struggled against Cumberland, they drop below Florence and probably below Paulsboro unless Paulsboro gets blown away. If Glassboro wins either game, they may even drop below them.

Florence: Will move to #1 in Group 1 if Paulsboro and Glassboro each have 2 or more losses and, of course they convincingly beat Riverside and beat South River by more than Paulsboro beats Glassboro or by 14 more than Glassboro beats Paulsboro, as South River has the lowest Bill Born Index of all Group 1 finalists. Florence's only loss was by 6 to a playoff team

Paulsboro: Moves up to #1 in Group 1immediately if they beat West Deptford and to #1 anyway if they beat Glassboro by more than Florence beats South River. Paulsboro's only loss was by 3 to a playoff team They lost to West Deptford in a great game!

Glassboro: Stays #3 in Group 1 if they lose to Paulsboro regardless of the outcome against Deptford. Moves ahead of Paulsboro if they beat them. Moves ahead of Florence if they beat Paulsboro & Deptford unless Florence beats South River by 14 more than they beat Paulsboro. Glassboro's only loss was by 22 to Schalick.
If they win out, should I place them above Schalick? Comments please. I say yes because the ultimate goal is to be Group Champion, but Schalick would still be Conference Champion. They lost to Deptford and can only be #1 by Florence choking and by dominating Paulsboro - very doubtful.


There are some scenarios for Schalick, Paulsboro, Florence and Glassboro that I have not covered, but the above should be a good starting point for analysis. But try these possibilities


All of the above win on T-day weekend

Paulsboro/Glassboro winner is #1 unless Florence meets the above criteria for surpassing the winner. Otherwise, Florence is #2

Schalick is #3

Paulsboro/Glassboro loser is #4 - Maybe #3 now that Schalick has weakened.


Glassboro loses to Deptford, but beats Paulsboro

Florence is #1

Schalick is #2 - Not anymore, their weak win on T-Day changes this scenario

Glassboro is #3

Paulsboro is #4 unless Glassboro beats them by 14 or more in which case PG will deserve some consideration


Paulsboro loses to WD, but beats Glassboro

Florence is #1

Schalick is #2 unless Paulsboro beats Glassboro by 3 TDs. Otherwise Paulsboro is #3. But if Paulsboro loses a tight one to WD, they may deserve the higher ranking without having to beat Glassboro by that much. What criteria would you use in this scenario? (Schalick would be 9-1 having beat Glassboro by 21 on the road and Paulsboro would be 9-2 having beat Glassboro at home) Keep your comments nice enough and intelligent enough for me to publish This is now a moot point. If Paulsboro beats Glassboro, they are ahead of Schalick.

Glassboro is #4

Florence loses on T-day but beats South River

They become #3 or 4

Sunday, November 19, 2006

Playoffs - Round 2:

Group 1:

Glassboro won a tough victory over Penns Grove. PG was great in their loss and I wonder what might have been for them if they weren't still a little banged up from their double overtime game at Schalick last week. It is tough to pull upsets on the road 2 weeks in a row, but they gave it a good try. They can hold their heads up high. It will be tough to decide where to rank them. The Bulldog defense came through when it had to. Defense wins championships.

Paulsboro easily beat Woodbury and will be favored in the final. Their defense shut down Woodbury and gave their offense plenty of opportunities. Defense wins Championships and a nice offense makes it even better.


Group 2:

West Deptford beat Haddonfield again despite giving up 4 fumbles and one was returned 64 yds for a TD. They sacked Haddonfield's QB 4 times. Defense wins championships.

Manasquan will try to avoid the upset against overmatched Bridgeton and will then make it tough for West Deptford in the finals.

Group 3:

Seneca rolls into the finals with a come-back win over Hammonton in front of a large crowd. The Hammonton defense did a great job in the first half but couldn't sustain it in the second half. The Seneca defense stepped up in the second half to shut down Hammonton with several 3 and outs. Defense wins championships and 2nd half defense allows the offense to come back.

Lacey Twp. beat Triton

Group 4:

Absegami returns to the Championship game by shuting down Pennsauken in the 2nd half.

Cherokee beat Toms River East in a close game.

Non-Public Group 3:

Both South Jersey teams lost:

Holy Cross gave Delbarton a battle, but couldn't them in the second half after coming back for a 14-14 tie at half-time.

Holy Spirit was no match for top-seeded Immaculata.

Non-Public Group 2:

A South Jersey team will win this one:

St. Joe's beat Bishop Eustace but BE has nothing to be ashamed of as they held powerful St. Joe's to 14. St Joe's defense shut out BE. St. Joe's is the first team to claim a Group Championship this year and can purchase some more jackets.

Central Jersey Group 1:

Florence said good-bye to the pit with an easy shutout victory against Metuchen. They will play the winner of the top-seeded South River vs. Keansburg game.

Central Jersey Group 3:

Moorestown beat Hamilton West 34-14 after upsetting top-seeded Lawrence last week. Next they will travel to either 2nd seeded Middletown South or Monmouth.

Sunday, November 12, 2006

Week #10 Conference vs. Conference

Special Statement:

The NJSIAA has made a lot of stupid policy decisions.

1. Neutral site games that are not near the schools involved.

2. Neutral site games for some but not all.

3. Northing

4. High ticket prices and even higher for those neutral site games with no money going to the schools involved who incur travel expenses. This is the biggest sin - to not share the proceeds with the schools involved who incur expenses for travle and such!

There are other rule changes over the years that I don't like. A mere 30 day sit out period encourages school jumping as per a guy named Lopez who played football for Williamstown a while back but jumped to Township 30 days before wrestling season started and Cooper who moved in with a "friend" so as to play for Pitman.

I wonder just exactly what rule changes have really been for the better except those recommended by national organizations.

If they really wanted to help athletes, then they would allow kids from places like Wildwood to play on nearby teams. This is permitted in wrestling as per Gateway/Woodbury.

Their idiocy is demonstrated further by having Pitman assigned to play Wilson in a consolation game when a better match might have been Trenton Catholic (who lost by 20 to Cardinal McCarrick).

AND they randomly test for steroids after the game (which can cause forfeits). Test in time to ban players before the game is played.

This week at lot of comparisons between conferences can be made. Other teams faced dangerous re-matches.

Tri-County Classic vs. Burlco/Olympic Freedom: 1-0 - wish there had been more match-ups

Tri- County Classic vs. Colonial Liberty: 1-0

Tri-County Classic vs. Colonial Patriot: 2-0

Tri-County Classic vs. Tri-County Royal: 0-2

Tri-County Classic rematches: 1 reversal

Tri-County Royal vs. Burlco/Olympic Liberty: 0-3


Tri-County Royal vs. Burlco/Olympic American: 0-1

Tri-County Royal vs. Cape-Atlantic American: 2-0

Tri-County Royal vs. Colonial Liberty: 0-1

Colonial Patriot vs. Shore Patriot: 1-0

Colonial Patriot vs. Burlco/Olympic Freedom: 2-0

Colonial Liberty vs. Shore National: 1-0

Colonial Liberty vs. Burlco/Olympic National: 1-1

Colonial Liberty vs. Cape-Atlantic National: 0-1

Burlco/Olympic American vs. Shore American: 0-1

Burlco/Olympic American vs. Cape-Atlantic American: 2-1

Burlco/Olympic American re-matches: 1 with same outcome

Burlco/Olympic Liberty vs. Colonial Valley Conference: 1-0

Burlco/Olympic Liberty vs. Shore American: 1-0

Burlco/Olympic Liberty vs. Shore Federal: 1-0

Burlco/Olympic Liberty vs. Cape-Atlantic American: 0-1

Burlco/Olympic Patriot vs. Shore Constitution: 1-1

Burlco/Olympic Patriot vs. Cape-Atlantic American: 0-1

Burlco/Olympic Patriot vs. Cape-Atlantic National: 0-1

Burlco/Olympic Patriot vs. Colonial Valley: 1-0

Burlco/Olympic National vs. Northern Hills Suburban: 1-0

Burlco/Olympic National vs. NNJIL A: 1-1

Burlco/Olympic National vs. Shore National: 0-1

Burlco/Olympic Freedom vs. Shore Patriot: 1-0

Burlco/Olympic Freedom vs. Greater Middlesex Gold: 1-1

Burlco/Olympic Freedom vs. Colonial Valley Patriot: 1-1

Cape Atlantic American vs. Shore American: 0-1

Cape-Atlantic American vs. Cape-Atlantic National: 1-0

Cape-Atlantic National vs. Colonial Hills: 1-0

Cape-Atlantic National vs. Hudson Valley I.A.A.: 1-0

Cape-Atlantic National re-match: 1 re-match with no change in outcome



Basically: wins -losses - same outcome - reversals

Tri-County Classic: 4-2-0-1 (one team did not play)

Tri-County Royal: 4-5-0-0

Colonial Liberty: 3-3-0-0

Colonial Patriot: 3-2-0-0

Burlco/Olympic American: 3-2-1-0

Burlco/Olympic Liberty: 6-1-0-0

Burlco/Olympic Patriot: 2-3-0-0 (one did not play)

Burlco/Olympic National: 3-3-0-0

Burlco/Olympic Freedom: 3-5-0-0 They seem to beat some of the Central Jersey teams and lose to the South teams

Cape-Atlantic American: 4-5-0-0

Cape-Atlantic National: 5-1-1-0


St' Joe's easily beat Morris Catholic. There is just no stopping them.

Schalick gets upset in a rematch against Penns Grove in double OT. They may still be the best in Group 1, but they cannot maintain the top ranking after being eliminated. Where to place them will be a tough call.

Township gets beat again in a re-match! They may still be the best in the county, but they can not hold the top Gloucester County spot with 3 losses.

Clearview finally loses (and by a big margin) as they faced Olympic caliber Triton. It is looking more and more like they took advantage of a sub-par year in the Royal.

West Deptford wins their 1st round game and may get the top spot in Gloucester County. I still don't think that they are as good as the past couple of years, but they are the last undefeated team in the county. They are survivors.

Deptford lost to Haddonfield! Perhaps Haddonfield is peaking at the right time. They made West Deptford look bad and now they conquer Deptford. They edge out Paulsboro but get blown away by Woodbury and also lost to Collingswood. I would be very interested in hearing exactly what Haddonfield did to stop Deptford.

Florence beat Shore Regional may move back on top in the Group 1 rankings depending on how impressive they are. Where I put them could be somewhat based on how their regular season opponents fared against the Gloucester County Group 1 teams (Woodbury & Gateway). The Freedom Division teams lost all 3 of their games to teams from the South and they won all of their games against teams from the Central. Hmmm........


Bishop Eustace won a tight game against DePaul.

Glassboro beat Lindenwold big. Only the horrible Schalick loss stains their record.

Paulsboro beat Barnegat. No Shore team has ever won a South Group 1 playoff game.

Delran was shut out by Manasquan.

Delsea beat Ocean City in a consolation game. The Royal teams seemed to have handled the Cape teams, but not the Olympic teams.

Kingsway lost big to Winslow Twp. Once again, the Royals cannot handle the Olympics.

Woodbury beat Maple Shade in round 1.

Williamstown had no problem with Vineland.

Bridgeton beat Lower Cape May in a rematch of a game they won early in the season.

Highland lost to Timber Creek in another match of Tri-County Royal vs. the Olympic.

Burlington City easily handled Middlesex in a consolation game. It is a shame that they couldn't be in the playoffs. They belonged!

Pennsville beat Haddon Heights 13-12

Gateway had no problem with Palmyra. The strength of the small Burlco teams vs. the Gloucester County teams is being tested this weekend and could affect my rankings.

Salem lost to Gloucester Catholic. This must have a been very exciting game.

Burlington Twp. easily handled Haddon Twp. in a consolation mismatch. Perhaps the state should use strength of schedule to determine these games.

Sterling lost to Pleasantville.

Buena beat Manchester Twp. in OT.

Gloucester beat Audubon in an interesting match-up of 2 teams that may be better than their records indicate.

Cumberland lost to Rancocas Valley in another Royal vs. Olympic match-up.

Woodstown easily handled Riverside .

Collingswood easily beat Cinnaminson and the strength of the small Burlco teams is in question.

New Egypt beat Allentown.

Woodrow Wilson and Pitman agreed not to play !!!!!!! .

Bordentown lost to Robbinsville.

Overbrook beat Clayton.


Some comparisons for me to review as I re-rank:

Undefeated teams: St. Joe's and West Deptford

Record against teams who made the playoffs:

St. Joe's 4-0
WD 3-0

Average scoring margin against teams who made the playoffs:

SJ 35.75
WD 20.33

It is easy to rank St. Joe's over WD

8-1 teams: Bishop Eustace, Clearview, Florence, Glassboro, Paulsboro, Schalick

Marigin of loss in only loss:

Schalick 1 (in 2OT)
Paulsboro 3
Florence 6
BE 15
Glassboro 22
Clearview 29

Playoff margin:

G 28
P 27
F 21
BE 1
D -3
C -29

Record against teams who made the playoffs:

BE 3-1
P 3-1
S 2-1
G 2-1
C 1-1
D 0-2

Average margin against teams who made the playoffs:

P 16.5
S 10.67
F 7.33
G 6.67
BE 2.0
D -9.5
C -9.5

Power Points (including playoffs and residuals from consolations):

BE 72
C 70
P 48
F 47
S 46
G 43

Strength of Schedule:

C 61
BE 54
F 51
S 47
P 46
G 44

My gut feeling:

S
BE
F
G
P
C


Next: Assigning points: 1 for 1st, 2 for 2nd, etc - (with a tie for 2nd counting as 2 for all tied) (counting my gut feeling triple - so as to be 1/3 of total - afterall it is MY rankings) (lowest total wins):

So,

1. (tie) BE & Schalick - BE gets the edge for still being alive in the playoffs

3. Florence

4. Paulsboro

5. Glassboro

6. Clearview

So, the top 8 of my 48 teams:

1. St. Joe's

2. West Deptford

3. Bishop Eustace

4. Schalick - but they will not stay here as the South Group 1 champion has to be higher in the final rankings unless it is a 2 loss team.

5. Florence - but remember that Florence's opponents failed against their more southerly opponents this week.

6. Paulsboro

7. Glassboro - but remember that Glassboro beat Lindenwold by more than Paulsboro

8. Clearview - which makes some sense since Glassboro and Schalick beat Salem by more than Clearview.

Next, I will put Township, who could probably beat all of the above (with the possible exception of St. Joe's), but with 3 losses, I feel that I must bring them down.