2010 - South Jersey overall rankings 12/05/10
Traditional South Jersey only!!!!
My rules: NOTICE THE CHANGES!
1. No more than 6 from any one group or from all Non-Publics - the top 5 from each Group and one wildcard for 26 teams. Group 4 gets the wildcard again this week.
2. I have my own “ratings points” system (similar to power points, but not the same) and it is used to determine rankings of teams with same records that have not met on the field. The ratings have a small factor for large victories which equal having beat an opponent with one more win and the same bonus for an OT loss. There is a much bigger factor for the Group size of the opponent! Beating or losing to a team one Group higher equals adding one win to their record, so if a Group 1 team beats or loses to a Group 2 team with a 5-5 record, then it is like beating a Group 1 team with a 6-4 record. Likewise if a Group 2 team beats a Group 1 team with a 5-5 record, it is like beating a Group 2 team with a 4-6 record.
3. Playoff wins/losses count for more ratings points than regular season wins/losses, so teams advance higher in rankings the deeper they go into the playoffs. I also give more credit for a consolation game win as in most cases it shows the strength against a team of almost equal record from another conference. Although I would like to find a way to give more credit for playing in a tougher conference, this is a start.
4. If teams have same wins/losses and have met on the field, then the result of that game counts. If they met twice and split, then ratings points count. If a 3rd team with same record is between them in ratings points, then I revert to a “gut feeling” as to where to put the 3rd team.
5. In final rankings, no team can be ranked above a team that has 1 more win/1 less loss unless
ratings points are 10% higher and no team can be ranked above a team that has 2 more wins/2 less losses unless ratings points are 25% higher. If a team has 1 less win and same number of losses or same number of wins and 1 more loss, the factor is 5%, However if the two teams have met on the field then the winner may be ranked higher (I have to make that tough call on a “gut feeling”). Similar factors are used for other win/loss variations.
6. Teams that are disqualified from playoffs receive points as if they were in playoffs and beat lower seeded teams and lost to higher seeded teams (with an exception if the higher seeded team was upset by the team that took the disqualified team’s seed). Teams with byes get credit for a win also. Teams disqualified from or not participating in consolations receive same points earned by the team that I speculate played their “would have been” opponent. So, there are assumed wins and losses to be sure that every team has at least a 10 game rating. Playoff teams who made it to the second round have an advantage as they have 11 or 12 games. This ranks them higher, so playoff survival is a big factor and all champions should normally be in the final top ten.
7. Forfeits do not help/hurt opponents. On the field counts, but a small factor (as per rule #2) is given to the team that received the forfeit win and the team that forfeited cannot receive large victory points! If the state used my system, teams that received forfeit wins would not be helped making the playoffs and the teams that beat the forfeiting team would not be punished.
8. Once playoffs begin, I give credit to teams in playoffs in determining their ratings points and that affects their rankings. In all cases I assumed a higher seeded team wins in playoffs, so they can move up or down if the lower seed wins.
9. Beginning in 2011, the ratings will be based on games within the last year. When a team plays it’s first game, the previous year’s game against same opponent no longer counts (or the opponent that was replaced).
All undefeated and one loss teams are in the top 10 as there are only 7. All Group Champions are in the top 6.
1. Holy Spirit (12-0) – Non-Public #1 – way ahead in ratings points if they win the finals.
2. Cherokee (12-0) – Group 4 #1
That ends the undefeated - many of the teams below could beat or lose to a higher ranked team “on any given day”. 5 of the 8 teams (1 Group 1, 2 Group 2, 2 Group 3, 1 Group 4 and 2 Non-Public) I saw Thanksgiving weekend just didn’t seem to have the speed that I see in the top 5 Group 1 teams (that I see frequently) and a couple of Group 2 teams. So, anybody’s rankings are fickle as anything can happen when good teams meet!
3. St. Joe's (10-1) – Non-Public #2 – beat Hammonton more convincingly than Delsea, which helped prove my ratings points system – loss was by 35 points
4. Haddonfield (11-1) – Group 2 #1 – loss was by 3 points and they avenged it
5. West Deptford (11-1) – Group - 2 #2 – loss was by 8 points and they had previously beat that team – highest ranked 1 loss team without a championship – closest loss of Finals losers
6. Glassboro (10-2) - Group 1 #1 – Can’t put them higher with 2 losses – looked very good in finals as they were finally healthy, but overall season counts – losses were by a total of 10 points and they avenged one of the losses – they were ready for anybody in the finals - best line play of season! Two 1000+ yds. running backs!
7. Delsea (10-2) – Group 3 #1 – losses were by 69 points and they avenged one of them – highest ranked 2 loss team without a championship
8. Oakcrest (9-3) – Group 4 #2 – losses were by 87 points
9. Penns Grove (8-1) - Group 1 #2 – best team not in playoffs – a successful 2 point conversion (which they thought they made, but didn’t cry about) in game 1 and a Group Championship (for an undefeated season) would have moved them to #3!
10. Willingboro (10-1) – Group 2 #3 – loss was by 11 points
So, the top 10 is the top 2 Non-Publics, 2 Group 4, 1 Group 3, 3 Group 2 and 2 Group 1. 3 from Atlantic County, 3 from Gloucester County, 2 from Burlington County, 1 from Camden County and 1 from Salem County. Each group has their top 2 except for Group 3.
That ends the 1 loss teams, so they all made the top 10! All 9 finalists are in the top 12.
11. Paul VI (8-2) - Non-Public #3 - misfortune of being in toughest Group in state – big loss to Lenape keeps them out of top 10.
12. Paulsboro (9-3) - Group 1 #3 – the only finalist that I did not place at the top.
13. Woodbury (9-2) - Group 1 #4 – still a strong team for Group 1 and can beat many teams from bigger Groups! Only below Paulsboro because the playoffs count for more than the regular season.
The next 4 could be in order. They are stron teams that could probably beat several teams above them, but with 4 or 5 losses, they can’t be higher than this. AC has the most ratings points, but lost to Hammonton which lost to EHT which lost to AC. All of the next 4 have a lot of ratings points but not enough to jump the 2 loss teams above them as per rule #5. They just all have too many losses to be ranked higher. Hammonton and AC outrank EHT with better win-loss records and Hammonton beat AC. This is where the “gut feeling” is used to place Winslow.
14. Hammonton (7-4) - Group 3 #2 - with 4 losses they land here.
15. Atlantic City (7-4) - Group 4 #3
So, the top 15 is the top 3 Non-Publics, 3 from Group 4, 2 from Group 3, 3 from Group 2 and 4 from Group 1. 5 from Gloucester County, 5 from Atlantic County, 2 from Burlington, 2 from Camden County and 1 from Salem County. Each group has their top 3 except for Group 3 and they are right below.
16. Winslow Twp. (7-4) – Group 3 #3
17. Egg Harbor Township (6-5) – Group 4 #4 – despite 5 losses they had a ton of ratings points!
18. Williamstown (7-3) - Group 4 #5
Weak schedules hurt the next 2 in their ratings
19. Pennsville (9-2) – Group 1 #5 – looked very good until 2nd half of semi-final game and blown out on T-Day – edged out Holy Cross by .25 in my ratings points
20. Holy Cross (8-2) - Non-Public #4 – last of the 2 loss teams
21. Moorestown (7-3) - Group 3 #4
22. Cumberland (7-3) – Group 3 #5
23. Millville (6-4) – Group 4 wildcard
24. Camden Catholic (5-5) - Non-Public #5 – 8th seed
25. Camden (6-4) Group 2 #5
26. Lower Cape May (8-3) - Group 2 #5
8-3 team not under consideration: New Egypt
7-3 team not under consideration: Palmyra
Mainland would be 7-3 if not for forfeits, but would still not be ranked
Let me know of any typos please! I am half blind (should be a ref if I didn't have bad knees) and have fumble fingers when I type!
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